Simpsons - Monorail or Governor Brown's California High speed train??

Only the stupid government of California that is currently going broke would think the "mono-rail" from San Francisco to LA would be a good idea. Waring if you are mathmatically inclined don't click on the link that mocks this outrageous project.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/cash-strapped-california-votes-68-billion-monorail-get-federal-bailout

Welcome to the Gold Standard Steve Forbes!!

Love Zerohedge and their reporting: Steve Forbes How to Bring Back America

More and more people are coming to the realization that a true free market on a gold standard does in fact work. It is a vastly better alternative then putting politicians in charge of "stable money" and the enconomy! Welcome to the fold Steve Forbes!

Deja Vu All over Again and Again??

It has been awhile since my last email commentary on the markets, but there are some important developments playing out. For those of you I have had the opportunity to meet with in 2012 I’ve shared my theme of “Policy Driving”. Policy being driven by Governments and Central Bank actions are continuing to have a substantial effect on the markets. You turn on CNBC or Bloomberg there is constant talk of “QE”, “LTRO”, “Stimulus”, etc. The latest iteration of that was the European Central Bank (ECB) Long Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO) that was in effect from December 2011 until February 2012. The market responded extremely well. So I must have a Mae Culpa for not predicting the effect this would have on the markets as a lot of our positioning was defensive. However a lot of the funds in the portfolios by design did take advantage of the rally. 

Going forward the market since March and really April has been hitting some resistance. This seems to be playing out similarly to 2010 & 2011 where the US stock market tops around April then runs into trouble during the summer followed by stimulus from governments/central banks making the markets take off. So I think remaining in the defensive positioning going into summer is very prudent. Especially when one of my main concerns is that the US Debt Ceiling is projected to be breached after August in an election season no less! When the debt ceiling was extended it was suppose to be good until 2013, but the government deficits so far have been larger than projected. I will be monitoring this extensively as we get closer to the date. So for the time being let's hunker down and wait for intervention. Hopefully the market takes to the "medicine" like in 2010 and 2011. What I fear and what keeps me up at night is when the "medicine" doesn't take. But that's another post in the future because it's not a question of if, but when....

Truth can also be Scarier than Fiction: Fukushima Meltdown

I guess Friday the 13th got me looking at horror stories. And a murdering deranged man in hockey mask at my age doesn't frighten me as it did in my youth. Since March of 2011 something far more sinister and terrifying to humanity occurred in Fukushima Japan in aftermath of a massive earthquake and tsunami. The Fukushima Nuclear meltdown.

The BBC does a great job reporting this scary moments over the last decade if not longer. The Fukushima Meltdown that the video documents is eerie, what is even more frightening is that it hasn't been solved. After doing more research as a result of this catastrophe I have gone 180 on nuclear energy. The risks are just not worth the benefit. What continues to concern me is that the US and many other nations has these older model reactors that are obviously inadequate against the risks.



If you would like to continue to scare yourself then I recommend following these links:
http://ajw.asahi.com/category/0311disaster/fukushima/

http://fukushima-diary.com/

Happy belated Friday the 13th!

Rick Santelli Exposes the Buffet Rule

He loses it on the air, but really why is Santelli one of the few that are outraged at our predicament.

World Collapse Explained in 3 Minutes

An oldie but a goodie video on the craziness of the European banking system and the whole financial system for that matter.

The Debt Star is Moving on to Another Target!

Seth Klarman's Rare Interview

A fabulous interview with an investment heavy weight, Seth Klarman:

An Interview with Seth Klarman and Charlie Rose from Facing History and Ourselves on Vimeo.

Great Interactive Piece from the BBC on the Eurozone Debt Issue

A really interesting piece from the BBC showing the extent of the interconnectedness of the debt web that has been spun over the years. This epitomizes the debt problems of the Eurozone. Have fun playing it with it all. Click the link above or copy and paste this one: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696

David Rosenberg on Wealthtrack using the D word

Consuelo Mack of Wealthtrack does some great in depth interviews with the leading financial minds out there. David Rosenberg former Merrill Lynch economist and now economist of Gluskin Sheff is one of those great leading minds. I have followed him for some time now and his analysis is top notch. He called the financial crisis and the recession of 2008. Many detractors will point to him not seeing the 2009-11 rebound in stocks. However his strategy of bonds, income producing stocks, and precious metals has been very successful with incrementally less risk. Now he is using the D-word, Depression, to describe the times we are in. I tend to agree with him believe it or not. I don't think it's as visible as it was in the 1930s. We have social safety nets that have been hiding the stress. Food stamps being an example of this stress. They have increased in usage since the start of the financial crisis and are up to 15% of the population using them. The Huffington Post has further details on this. Whether we call it a Great Depression or not remains to be seen and will be determined in large part by governmental policy snafus. At the very least we are in a balance sheet recession. Which are financial in nature and are long drawn out affairs. I think the label of "depression" will come well after the fact so don't expect it to become mainstream anytime soon.

Luckily for us David Rosenberg does take an optimistic twist at the end. Which I feel is very important as we go through tougher times. We will get through this and political/leadership change in the developed world will eventually occur and help. In addition deleveraging and time will be the most helpful. Watch it all and enjoy:

The Debt Star

Funny, but true... unfortunately:

Ray Dalio's Latest Interview with Chralie Rose

Anytime you have the opportunity to listen/watch Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates talk than you are better off having done so. His approach to global economics and assessment of the "machine" is truly revealing to his success as an investor. Whether you agree with him or not on the various subjects how he comes to his conclusions is what fellow mercenaries should study and emulate. Follow the link to Charlie Rose's website and enjoy!

Hugh Hendry's Latest Media Appearance

Hugh Hendry is back after a hiatus from making media appearances. According to him his new "CEO" has requested that he not make anymore media appearances. Luckily for us he was a able to sneak on to a BBC radio show to give his views of the European Crisis. Enjoy:



and the long version of the video:

California's Financial Woes Look to Continue

Michael Lewis' newest article over at Vanity Fair, California and Bust is an eye opening article and somewhat depressing. He covers quite a bit including defending Meredith Whitney, interviewing Arnold Schwarzenegger, and going to the city level where most of the pain is being felt. I implore you to read it in its entirety as it is well written and his premise is unique. My critical comments would be that he didn't go after the public sector unions and come to the conclusion that FDR had done in his presidency that they should not be allowed. On the flip side the public workers were unionized long before the most recent devolution of America/California society. Read it yourself and see what conclusions you come to.

Lewis' article inspired me to find the great work that Mish over at his Global Economic Trend Analysis has done on the subject of California. I have been meaning to post these links for sometime now. Mish's blog has done us all a wonderful service by discussing a lot of California's budget problems. Here are his solutions to budget crises in January 2008 & 2011:
Mish's California Budget Proposal
&
California Budget Balancer Interactive Map from LA Times Misses the Mark

Mish:
"Look at this disgusting list of California Agencies.

I sorted out some but not all of the more ridiculous ones.

Does the state need a ....

• Acupuncture Department
• Office of AIDs
• Air Research Board
• 3 different agencies for alcohol and beverages
• 2 Apprenticeship Councils
• Art Council
• Asian Pacific Islander Legislative Caucus
• Bureau of Automotive repair
• Barbering board
• Biodiversity council
• Calvet Loan program
• Climate Change Portal
• Coastal Commission
• Cool California
• 4 Delta agencies
• Digital Library
• Bureau of Electronic and Appliance Repair
• Employment Training Panel
• Energy Commission
• Equalization Board
• 2 Fair Employment agencies
• Film Commission
• Flex Your Power
• Healthy Family Program
• Hearing Aid Dispensers Bureau
• Home Furnishings Bureau
• Humanities Council
• Independent Living Council
• Indoor Air Quality Program
• Economic Development Bank
• Interagency Ecological Program
• Labor and Workforce Development
• Latino Legislative Caucus
• Learn California
• Little Hoover Commission
• Maritime Academy
• Managed Risk Board
• Museum for History
• MyCali Youth Portal
• Native Heritage Association
• Natural Community Planning Program
• Naturopathic Medicine Community
• Outreach
• Peace Officer Standards Board
• Postsecondary Education Commission
• Prison Industry Authority
• Privacy Protection Office
• Psychology Board
• Railroad Museum
• Recovery Task Force
• Refugee Branch
• Regents of the U of C
• Save Our Water commission
• Smart Growth Caucus
• Status of Women Commission
• Take Charge California
• We Connect
• Wetlands Information System
• Workforce Investment Board

California does not need ANY of those. Moreover I assure you I missed dozens more that could be cut back if not eliminated entirely. What the heck do those cost? And how much can be saved by my suggestions above."

A great quote from Mish... Read both of the links in their entirety. They are excellent. California has had 2+ years of massive budget problems. Early this year it was at the tune of a $25 billion deficit.

My take on this is simple and sensible. People of California and the United States need to ask themselves, "what kind of Government do you want and what are you willing to do to pay for it." I don't think that California residents realize what the costs are of having a fully intrusive government that tries to be all things to all people. Californians already have some the highest taxes in the union with little to show for it. Why not have the state focus on some of the more important aspects of basic governance: education, public safety, public health, infrastructure, and certain basic safety nets. Sure those basics are in need of massive reform, but at least the effort and focus could/should be on them. However if you think that California (and the US for that matter) is too far gone like Michael Lewis hints at then it might have to get a lot worse before it gets better. As time progresses I am leaning towards the later option and holders of  local/city municipal bond should be prepared on what that may look like.

NCAA Hypocrisy Exposed by the Mercs & South Park

NCAA major sports programs are a big business... no a huge business. I find the hypocrisy of the NCAA Division I sports stifling. My doubts started when College Football refused all common sense and the spirit of competition when they rejected a playoff system. The vested interests of the bowl system, TV rights, etc. were not budging. I am fine with folks making money, but when the NCAA wrap themselves up in academics and the tradition of the bowls I call hypocrisy! The more I looked into the more the whole system absolutely stinks.

The NCAA loves to espouse academics and will parade it out or hide behind it at the first sign of trouble. Truth being told when it comes to academics the graduation rates of the "student athletes" is extremely low. Especially for the players who come from the top programs. Overall and there is some debate with the statistics, but ESPN reports grad rates at 69% for Division I football. You can see where all the schools individually rank at Scout.com. For reference this year's current college #1 ranked team, Oklahoma, is at an embarrassing 45% graduation rate. When comparing the racial divide between graduation rates of whites to blacks the numbers are even worse. 59% was the graduation rate from last years champion, Auburn. However 94% of Caucasian players graduated compared to the 48% of African Americans. That's a -46% difference! So you better hope these kids have a chance at the NFL, right?? Yeah, hmmm, well at least 90% of the 2500 Division I football players that run out of eligibility never play a single down in the NFL according to this ESPN article. The article is full of NCAA hypocrisy and is a must read. NFL has been known to stand for "Not For Long" and most players don't even make it to "full career" of 5 years. If that isn't enough information for you the Huffington Post does a good job exposing some of the questionable data that NCAA puts together in its statistics about student athlete academics.

Now that we've proven the sham of NCAA Student Athlete academics. The NCAA likes to play upon most of our fond memories of college that most of us share. They constantly talk up tradition and the spirit of history. I love history! Well guess what? The NCAA could really care less with their most recent antics. They have been turning a blind eye to conference realignment for the sake billion dollar TV contracts that the players will never see a dime of. Rose Bowl champion Texas Christian University, TCU will be playing sports in the Big East Conference?!?! Texas A&M is looking to jump ship to South East Conference, SEC. Oklahoma & Oklahoma State are contemplating a jump to the already crowded PAC-12. Why? For the TV contracts of course! Guess what if you are player in one of the big powerhouse schools if you accept any form of payment or trade you are suspended or kicked out of the league. The latest (ESPN) is the star quarterback, Terrell Pryor, from Ohio State was suspended and forced to try the NFL because he received a couple hundred dollars and some tattoos for signing his own jersey of the school he plays for! Meanwhile one injury could've ended his career and his earning potential. He would have little to show for it. However the school would have made 10s of millions on TV contracts, tickets sales, video game sales, memorabilia, etc. I don't have time to rant about the coaches who make millions in the face of their unpaid players....

The more I have looked into it, the more disenfranchised I have become of big time college sports. Worse is I hate the rank hypocrisy that is thrown in your face as a sports fan. And I am a huge sports fan. I am as big of a capitalist as any out there and don't have any problem with any coach or school making money. When you use the government and "non-profit" institutions to manipulate & oppress others so they can't get the same opportunity that's when I have a problem! One of the reasons I am a sports fan and a capitalist at heart is I love competition. However there isn't a level playing field for those that risk it all, the kids/students/players. So let's call the situation what it really is: SLAVERY. South Park doesn't pull any punches when it mocks the whole sham. Enjoy and remember careful what you support when you spend your money and time watching collegiate athletics.

Crack Baby Athletic Association
Get More: SOUTH
PARKEric Cartman,Kyle Broflovski,more...

Amazon's Blatant Bribery

Do I use/like Amazon.com? Yes!
Do I think California taxes are too high? Yes!
Do I generally think businesses are taxed too much? Yes!
Do I think certain businesses should get special treatment? Absolutely not!

So it's unbelievable to me that Amazon would be so bold to try to "buy" a special tax deal from the state of California. Reuters is reporting that Amazon is offering up to 7,000 jobs if California drops its online sales tax for 2 years.

To me business/capitalism needs a level playing field where competition is key. The businesses are forced to compete by giving benefits to the end consumer of a better product or service. When businesses have an unfair advantage that skews the marketplace. In this instance Amazon has the ability to undercut brick & mortar businesses in California by about 9-10%. (Unbelievable state & local taxes are that high. We get so little for it too) This hurts a lot of small business too. And leads me to the point that is unseen by many. That of course is that large businesses have the unfair advantage of being able to negotiate special tax treatments or deals that small businesses just can't. They also have a vast team of accountants and lawyers that are able to expose the tax loopholes. Not withstanding a lot of the loopholes in corporate tax code is designed to be exposed by "privileged businesses" in privileged industries. The most notable example is all the special benefits and treatments for real estate & construction of late. (Not shocking a disproportional of resources & energy went to fueling that bubble) I feel strongly simplifying the tax code and yes, even reducing tax rates benefit business, job creation, and in particular small business. Many studies have proven that small business is the real driver of jobs, not larger businesses and especially not government.

A note to investors of Amazon. Be careful of the effects of these new tax laws on Amazon's bottom line. Margins are already thin and the share price is already at "explosive growth" valuation with P/E ratio of 92 based on the closing price on 9/2/11. Is Amazon an innovative company in retail & cloud computing? Yes. I will still continue to use them because I hate wasting time driving to the mall and shopping when I can do it from the friendly confines of home. This by no means is a recommendation to buy or sell AMZN. Just make sure to do your homework with this investment or other for that matter.

Bank Regulators Cutting the Red Tape and Screwing the Rest of us

Caption: "June 3, 2003: Determined to cut red tape and reduce the regulatory burden are (l-r), Office of Thrift Supervision Director James Gilleran, Jim McLaughlin of the American Bankers Association, Harry Doherty of America's Community Bankers, FDIC Vice Chairman John Reich and Ken Guenther of the Independent Community Bankers of America"

Mentioned in William Black's: The Great American Bank Robbery

Hmmm I wonder if this will end badly??? This one you can chalk up to the Bush Administration & Alan Greenspan for leading the charge to make regulators useless. Greenspan was the most egregious by favoring "competition" between the regulators where banks had the ability to choose and change the regulators on a moments notice. So "regulators" jumped over each other to try to win business by being the most lenient. Well they won but America lost.

William Black: The Great American Bank Robbery

Dr. William Black a former regulator during the savings & loans crisis and white collar crime expert is discussing "The Great American Bank Robbery". I had seen this video a couple of years ago and should've posted it then, but it is just as important now as it was then. I recommend that if you have high blood pressure and get angry easy than please don't click the play button. I wish Black was in charge during the run up of the financial crisis or at the very least be there in 2008-9 to clean up the trash and throw a bunch of these banksters into the slammer. Again nobody from the major banks, brokerages, or mortgage origination companies have been thrown in jail from the pervasive fraud that was perpetrated on the United States & the world!! This is really the most troubling for me because it corrupts our market based economy. I am all for capitalism, but there needs to be a referee and consequences for crime and failure.

Watch the video and spread the word about the fraud!

Continued Keynesian Policy Failure Undressed!

A Guest Post (Keynesian Solutions- After Total Failure- try, try again) over at Zerohedge does us all a great service with their undressing our "current" government policy wonks. Current is kinda a misnomer when you consider Keynesian economics have been of every major institution and taught in schools across America since the 1930s! The post is thorough and a must read in its entirety. These paragraphs some it up perfectly:

The Keynesians had their chance. They controlled the Presidency and both houses of Congress. A Keynesian runs the Federal Reserve. They implemented everything they proposed. The $862 billion porkulus program, the $700 billion TARP program, home buyer tax credits, energy efficiency credits, loan modification programs, zero interest rates, QE1 and QE2. They increased social welfare transfers for Social Security, Unemployment Compensation, food stamps, Medicare, Medicaid, and Veterans by $600 billion since 2007, a 35% increase in four years. No one has foiled their plans. The Tea Party didn’t really exist until 2010. They didn’t lose the House until November 2010. They cannot blame the Tea Party extremists, but they do.

The Keynesians have successfully increased Federal spending by $1.1 trillion, or 41% since 2007, and are running deficits exceeding 10% of GDP, but they call the Tea Party extremists. Domestic investment is still 9% below 2008 levels as the Federal government has crowded out the small businesses that create the jobs in this country. And now the Keynesians declare we need more stimulus, more programs, more debt, more quantitative easing and lower interest rates. It just wasn’t enough the first time. You have to give the Keynesians credit. Despite the utter absolute failure of every scheme they have implemented, they will worship their models and theories until they successfully collapse our economic system. Then they’ll blame the Tea Party terrorists who foiled their plans.

None of the Keynesian solutions worked during this crisis, just as they didn’t work during the Great Depression. The solution was simple, yet painful. The banking system needed to be saved, not the banks. The bad debt needed to be purged from the system. Wall Street criminals needed to be prosecuted. Bondholders and stockholders needed bear the losses from their foolish investments. Saving and investment in the country needed to be encouraged, while borrowing and consuming needed to be discouraged. Our leaders have failed to lead. The American people have failed to accept the consequences of their actions. And now we are going to pay a heavy price as Ludwig von Mises predicted:

“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit (debt) expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit (debt) expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”

Please spread these posts around as hopefully more and more will demand a stop to this madness. It must be stopped.

Geithner doing his best to strangle small business

After a month long slumber from posting I have been rudely awaken by "Tiny" Tim Geithner boldly admitting to being in favor of higher taxes for small businesses. I found the link through the Drudge Report. Normally I would give the out of context quotes the benefit of the doubt. (Geithner saying taxes need to go up on the wealthy) However based on the actions of this administration and Tiny Tim, I will not give the benefit of the doubt. Mainly that they refuse to address long term structural deficits in the form of entitlements and they add to the entitlements in the form of health "reform". The Obama administration has done nothing to correct the hidden low effective tax rates born by large business. In a sense they will effectively punish the small business owners and the working (productive) wealthy. If you want to go after somebody go after the "helicopter rich" folks ($2mil+) that earn their monies through capital gains (private equity comp), stock options, and other benefits. The constant solution for Obama has been to focus on raising taxes/revenues versus taking care of the spending problems. I don't pray at the "no tax anytime" alter of most Republicans, but the vast majority of the gaping budget hole has to be filled with cuts.

My solution is level the playing field with my version of the Carrot & the Stick. The Carrot: lower corporate tax rates for all business. The Stick: eliminate all subsidies in the form of corporate welfare & simplify the tax code. Loopholes are created and exploited by the larger corporations. Small biz doesn't have the ability to employ legions of lawyers & accountants nor has the ability maneuver operations oversees. This all would be revenue neutral and in time would grow revenues as business and capital infusion will sustain new business activity.

Until there are real solutions that fix these long term structural problems business and individuals will be frozen in uncertainity and we as a country will not be able to heal from the decades of profligate spending & excess. Expect a muddle through economy at best and continued pressure on capital markets absent of temporary government & monetary intervention.