Friday, July 12, 2013

Market Update: 7/12/13

Even with well thought out research and analysis there is no way to determine what the Federal Reserve Bank and Ben Bernanke are going to do next. Their plan to “Taper” Bond purchases was reversed in a matter of days and the stock market was sent higher. Unfortunately for us very few people are able to get Ben’s information before he goes public. In my opinion the Federal Reserve originally had a thoughtful plan to taper off their $85billion per month of bond purchases. Yes this did raise rates, but like I stated in last week’s email it wasn’t necessary a bad thing. The normalizing of rates higher would relieve the massive speculation that was going on in markets like housing. Short term pain for longer term benefits. For the stock market I fundamentally and technically feel the same in that we should use caution. Especially if Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve are not able to get rates to fall. Plus there is a new headwind with the rise in oil prices as a result of Egypt and market speculation fed by Ben Bernanke (pun intended!). That will act as a tax against the economies of the world and slow growth. If the S&P 500 index passes 1687 then it might have some more upside, but I feel its limited compared to the downside. Sometimes exercising caution when crowds are at a frenzy is one of the toughest things to do!

S&P 500:

10 Year Treasury Bond:


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