tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-287067122024-03-14T09:38:27.019-07:00Investment MercenariesThis blog is an informative guide in the dog eat dog world of the global economy. Most brokers, realtors, bankers are essentially mercenaries available for a price. Similar to their past brethren these mercenaries can have ulterior motives and can be unpredictable. However if chosen and motivated correctly these mercenaries can be crucial to success. I too am a mercenary and will try my best to guide you through the economic & investment landscape among many other things!"Hunter"http://www.blogger.com/profile/00378911050329222693noreply@blogger.comBlogger67125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28706712.post-65924065049372206062013-07-12T18:28:00.001-07:002013-07-12T18:28:29.598-07:00Market Update: 7/12/13<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Even with well thought out research and analysis there is no
way to determine what the Federal Reserve Bank and Ben Bernanke are going to do
next. Their plan to “Taper” Bond purchases was reversed in a matter of days and
the stock market was sent higher. Unfortunately for us very few people are able
to get Ben’s information before he goes public. In my opinion the Federal
Reserve originally had a thoughtful plan to taper off their $85billion per
month of bond purchases. Yes this did raise rates, but like I stated in last
week’s email it wasn’t necessary a bad thing. The normalizing of rates higher
would relieve the massive speculation that was going on in markets like
housing. Short term pain for longer term benefits. For the stock market I
fundamentally and technically feel the same in that we should use caution.
Especially if Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve are not able to get rates to
fall. Plus there is a new headwind with the rise in oil prices as a result of
Egypt and market speculation fed by Ben Bernanke (pun intended!). That will act
as a tax against the economies of the world and slow growth. If the S&P 500
index passes 1687 then it might have some more upside, but I feel its limited
compared to the downside. Sometimes exercising caution when crowds are at a
frenzy is one of the toughest things to do!</div>
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S&P 500:</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1rfF66tPuhM7dNiDM8iGh6A8L8wmimoEmbxwTsgNES7_bEGB409U527IMAiha6jZ2JW1JYj-509qmMSM6pZjhPSNyLG3gG0p5F4Wh6zv5j8Qw5Y0Jj62br549WDKWSZKQhLuFpQ/s1600/S&P+500+Weekly+7_12_13.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1rfF66tPuhM7dNiDM8iGh6A8L8wmimoEmbxwTsgNES7_bEGB409U527IMAiha6jZ2JW1JYj-509qmMSM6pZjhPSNyLG3gG0p5F4Wh6zv5j8Qw5Y0Jj62br549WDKWSZKQhLuFpQ/s1600/S&P+500+Weekly+7_12_13.png" height="177" width="400" /></a></div>
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10 Year Treasury Bond:</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibDyrTDPIgOMJB9P62NGP8LBugKvgd7TOqSLTPOPYAAMxo3s6JCADrYD44nR0aYaABHbXY_8nn3Fy2HqyyFnd9PDI6zanqaD7wFCLvvjqdmEwi4mQYHe0-4DJl8v8ddEczvl2mcQ/s1600/10+Yr+Treasury+Weekly+7_12_13.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibDyrTDPIgOMJB9P62NGP8LBugKvgd7TOqSLTPOPYAAMxo3s6JCADrYD44nR0aYaABHbXY_8nn3Fy2HqyyFnd9PDI6zanqaD7wFCLvvjqdmEwi4mQYHe0-4DJl8v8ddEczvl2mcQ/s1600/10+Yr+Treasury+Weekly+7_12_13.png" height="177" width="400" /></a></div>
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Oil:</div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
"Hunter"http://www.blogger.com/profile/00378911050329222693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28706712.post-62781914862843620962013-07-05T16:06:00.001-07:002013-07-05T16:06:38.094-07:002013 Summer Market Update<div class="MsoNormal">
Here is a new update on recent market actions to give you a
clue on what we are looking at when managing your money. I have started to incorporate new trading skills by using Technical Analysis. “Timing can be everything”. And with
technical analysis I hope to help fine tune those transition points and improve
results. Obviously in the investment world nobody has the crystal ball, but the
combination of my fundamental analysis & new technical analysis should
help. Hopefully my analysis below helps you conclude the same. So without
further ado here is my take on the state of things as we continue into July. <o:p></o:p></div>
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From the beginning of the year until the 2<sup>nd</sup> half
of May the market was on a tear. Since May 22<sup>nd</sup> the market has
slowed and languished a bit. I see this continuing until the S&P 500 drops
to around 1500. If we look at the short term chart below it seems to confirm
that the next move is more likely to head lower to 1500 versus back up to the
peak of 1687. The short term trend has been broken and is struggling to
recover. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR-cyjL8JPW5LS-bz6gHEy-yM3_MErfj_RZCbpSI-gpudsBG3ZtqKeQZamaCIdCoZ957AgmlZAXGO-g5uy8STKPKa23JFg0rJ18vHag8GIGkqgCBeffMwLfppkJeHhOBlmzJyZ0w/s1600/S&P+500+Daily+7_5_13.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR-cyjL8JPW5LS-bz6gHEy-yM3_MErfj_RZCbpSI-gpudsBG3ZtqKeQZamaCIdCoZ957AgmlZAXGO-g5uy8STKPKa23JFg0rJ18vHag8GIGkqgCBeffMwLfppkJeHhOBlmzJyZ0w/s1600/S&P+500+Daily+7_5_13.png" height="283" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">Next is a medium term
chart showing a positive ascending channel since the summer of 2011 US debt
downgrade. It has not been broken. You can clearly see that by April/May stocks
really got ahead of themselves and broke above the trend only to correct below
it. Based on technical analysis the S&P 500 could fall to about 1500 as it
reverts back to the mean. 1500 is only about 11% off the peak of 1687 and would
not break the channel. See below for the medium term chart which I feel is the
most convincing one.</span></div>
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The S&P 500 has been following an establish ascending
channel which has been positive for the long-term health of the market is since
2009. Currently I don’t see anything on the horizon that will break such strong
long term upward momentum.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2LwTh5mo0HQOxg2F4-ahyphenhyphenGW-MhLKYie7jUirlYtqWown5OgaJnF7cXGFlIkvi8kEA5D_JY4dSwX2OmIbDuUMDKyvqj8F6RBarOabXtUH95tBNsga8D2g0oTze34FLjOqCgaUaJg/s1600/S&P+500+Monthly+7_5_13.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2LwTh5mo0HQOxg2F4-ahyphenhyphenGW-MhLKYie7jUirlYtqWown5OgaJnF7cXGFlIkvi8kEA5D_JY4dSwX2OmIbDuUMDKyvqj8F6RBarOabXtUH95tBNsga8D2g0oTze34FLjOqCgaUaJg/s1600/S&P+500+Monthly+7_5_13.png" height="284" width="640" /></a></div>
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<o:p></o:p>Now let’s use some Fundamental Analysis to determine if
these moves make sense. Again I see short term correction to possibly 1500pts
for the S&P 500 before making a move back up. In the short term the reason
for the drop is a result of 3 catalysts. The 1<sup>st</sup> and most
significant is a potential change in Federal Reserve Bank stimulus policy. The
“Fed” has really been the greatest driver of stocks, bonds, and commodity
prices over the last 5+ years. The Fed came out in May and then June before
backtracking that it would taper then stop it’s bond purchasing program of
Quantitative Easing. Which currently has a run rate of $85billion in
Treasury/Mortgage bond purchases per month! World markets have become
increasingly dependent on this massive stimulus from central banks around the
world. So the thought of stopping the “free money train” creates a lot of
unknowns. This has had a big effect on the bond market as well. Which leads to
the other catalyst for my short term bearishness. A sudden increase of interest
rates across the board. In an economy that is indebted as ours that can be
troublesome. Here is the 10 year Treasury Bond Yield chart showing just how big
a move this is: </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGdBCsDqKTjeu3aZ4voclSqMhq4QL9-Nny7QVyasuQykR2R4kd5pW3at97wdjaZqziY74j4pAUlxh0YglPDZzXTDqR-wNxzK5RNTXIYa0IJnl3vDNxcWrm-7URnCQgbTxsBQ8upQ/s1600/10+Yr+Treasury+Weekly+Log+7_5_13.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGdBCsDqKTjeu3aZ4voclSqMhq4QL9-Nny7QVyasuQykR2R4kd5pW3at97wdjaZqziY74j4pAUlxh0YglPDZzXTDqR-wNxzK5RNTXIYa0IJnl3vDNxcWrm-7URnCQgbTxsBQ8upQ/s1600/10+Yr+Treasury+Weekly+Log+7_5_13.png" height="285" width="640" /></a></div>
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The third catalyst is the global economy is showing signs of
slowing with China & Europe leading the way in that department. To save ink
I will leave that for another time. <o:p></o:p></div>
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The verdict is however not all bad and should keep the
medium and long term trends intact. Here are the bullish factors that should
keep those inline. There are no signs of an impending recession within the US.
We continue to muddle through as an economy. In fact the reason the Federal
Reserve is looking to slow its stimulus is because economic factors have shown
improvement. They want the economy to grow organically and without stimulus.
That’s a good thing, but it must still prove it to the markets. I am not
worried about interest rates going much higher in the short term after their
big move. Rates act to slow an economy that has been very speculative. Rates
have been manipulated well below real interest over the last 5+ years. That
causes speculation. The example of course is the housing market frenzy over the
last 18 months. It isn’t healthy for housing to be so one-sided and going up as
quick as it has during that time frame. Housing believe it or not historically
only goes up at about the same rate as inflation, 3%/yr. Obviously in the last
10 years it has been a lot more volatile. Corporations are in great shape with
healthy balance sheets and profits. Today’s reported number of 194,000 new jobs
confirms that health. All of these factors again should keep the medium &
long term trends in tact even though there is likely short term market pain headed
our way. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">So the next week to the next month or two I will
be monitoring the charts and fundamentals as they change. There should be some
volatility as things get sorted out. We will see how it all plays out soon enough! </span></div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
"Hunter"http://www.blogger.com/profile/00378911050329222693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28706712.post-7531814789933666942013-02-18T22:30:00.001-08:002013-02-18T22:30:54.347-08:00"Too Big to Fail has become Too Big for Trial"<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="270" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/mavB1lbtIow" width="480"></iframe><br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;">Everyone should support Senator Elizabeth Warren in the quest of cleaning up our financial system of the rampant corruption and fraud. Finally 5 years later somebody in congress is trying to do something. The "Too Big to Jail" status that financial mafia of the major Wall Street banks have enjoyed has gone on long enough. Those in the industry that do it right and the general public have suffered the most out of this long developing problem. Please share and get the word out!</span>"Hunter"http://www.blogger.com/profile/00378911050329222693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28706712.post-38574669878520623542012-07-07T16:10:00.001-07:002012-07-07T16:12:13.983-07:00Simpsons - Monorail or Governor Brown's California High speed train??<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="344" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/AEZjzsnPhnw?fs=1" width="459"></iframe><br />
<br />
Only the stupid government of California that is currently going broke would think the "mono-rail" from San Francisco to LA would be a good idea. Waring if you are mathmatically inclined don't click on the link that mocks this outrageous project. <br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/cash-strapped-california-votes-68-billion-monorail-get-federal-bailout">http://www.zerohedge.com/news/cash-strapped-california-votes-68-billion-monorail-get-federal-bailout</a></div>"Hunter"http://www.blogger.com/profile/00378911050329222693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28706712.post-44104651703472952552012-07-07T15:50:00.002-07:002012-07-07T15:50:36.671-07:00Welcome to the Gold Standard Steve Forbes!!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKbmq0yHSuUT7xUwA6VXqjwVP4H40PsSLAE6a6aPLTGg1yQ2SYMD9OC73Sa4hkIVDS5y-5JFROPgLYlp4K8HXWarrqliY_PvNU0aHfO4mqPx_Vh8P5aTH8eN9iTu6wLU2a9V13eg/s1600/Forbes.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="199" sca="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKbmq0yHSuUT7xUwA6VXqjwVP4H40PsSLAE6a6aPLTGg1yQ2SYMD9OC73Sa4hkIVDS5y-5JFROPgLYlp4K8HXWarrqliY_PvNU0aHfO4mqPx_Vh8P5aTH8eN9iTu6wLU2a9V13eg/s320/Forbes.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
Love Zerohedge and their reporting: <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/steve-forbes-how-bring-back-america" target="_blank">Steve Forbes How to Bring Back America</a><br />
<br />
More and more people are coming to the realization that a true free market on a gold standard does in fact work. It is a vastly better alternative then putting politicians in charge of "stable money" and the enconomy! Welcome to the fold Steve Forbes!</div>"Hunter"http://www.blogger.com/profile/00378911050329222693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28706712.post-7443063661704950652012-04-30T22:29:00.000-07:002012-04-30T22:30:50.966-07:00Deja Vu All over Again and Again??<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; font-size: small;">It has been awhile since
my last email commentary on the markets, but there are some important
developments playing out. For those of you I have had the opportunity to
meet with in 2012 I’ve shared my theme of “Policy Driving”. Policy
being driven by Governments
and Central Bank actions are continuing to have a substantial effect on
the markets. You turn on CNBC or Bloomberg there is constant talk of
“QE”, “LTRO”, “Stimulus”, etc. The latest iteration of that was the
European Central Bank (ECB) Long Term Refinancing
Operations (LTRO) that was in effect from December 2011 until February
2012. The market responded extremely well. So I must have a Mae Culpa
for not predicting the effect this would have on the markets as a lot of
our positioning was defensive. However a lot
of the funds in the portfolios by design did take advantage of the
rally. </span><br />
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</span><br />
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</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; font-size: small;">Going forward the market since March and really April has been
hitting some resistance. This seems to be playing out similarly to 2010
& 2011 where the US stock market tops around April then runs into
trouble during the summer followed by stimulus from
governments/central banks making the markets take off. So I think
remaining in the defensive positioning going into summer is very
prudent. Especially when one of my main concerns is that the US Debt
Ceiling is projected to be breached after August in an election
season no less! When the debt ceiling was extended it was suppose to be
good until 2013, but the government deficits so far have been larger
than projected. I will be monitoring this extensively as we get closer
to the date. So for the time being let's hunker down and wait for intervention. Hopefully the market takes to the "medicine" like in 2010 and 2011. What I fear and what keeps me up at night is when the "medicine" doesn't take. But that's another post in the future because it's not a question of if, but when.... </span></div>
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</span></div>"Hunter"http://www.blogger.com/profile/00378911050329222693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28706712.post-58392785255735977492012-04-14T12:24:00.000-07:002012-04-14T12:24:01.628-07:00Truth can also be Scarier than Fiction: Fukushima Meltdown<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
I guess Friday the 13th got me looking at horror stories. And a murdering deranged man in hockey mask at my age doesn't frighten me as it did in my youth. Since March of 2011 something far more sinister and terrifying to humanity occurred in Fukushima Japan in aftermath of a massive earthquake and tsunami. The Fukushima Nuclear meltdown.<br />
<br />
The BBC does a great job reporting this scary moments over the last decade if not longer. The Fukushima Meltdown that the video documents is eerie, what is even more frightening is that it hasn't been solved. After doing more research as a result of this catastrophe I have gone 180 on nuclear energy. The risks are just not worth the benefit. What continues to concern me is that the US and many other nations has these older model reactors that are obviously inadequate against the risks. <br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/IwBELPtVUCA" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
If you would like to continue to scare yourself then I recommend following these links:<br />
http://ajw.asahi.com/category/0311disaster/fukushima/<br />
<br />
http://fukushima-diary.com/<br />
<br />
Happy belated Friday the 13th! </div>"Hunter"http://www.blogger.com/profile/00378911050329222693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28706712.post-37042590060193753242012-04-12T17:47:00.000-07:002012-04-12T17:47:06.002-07:00Rick Santelli Exposes the Buffet Rule<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
He loses it on the air, but really why is Santelli one of the few that are outraged at our predicament.<br />
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="270" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/NOzR3UAyXao?fs=1" width="480"></iframe><br />
<br />
An oldie but a goodie video on the craziness of the European banking system and the whole financial system for that matter.</div>"Hunter"http://www.blogger.com/profile/00378911050329222693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28706712.post-77715549323035425602012-02-25T09:16:00.004-08:002012-02-25T09:16:40.039-08:00The Debt Star is Moving on to Another Target!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7Afcc3QcpA7WvGABvA1FPxCQzkjXpMjzz-8JEfCiqRAtI3s7XddNvezxIldguO7GJ-EptCg6JEBCNPATkpx22OcLh6FfvhpVcLZu2KG4Xc25N2Fic36IxfMgRB-uU_nH3dFLYvA/s1600/debtstar+v+mars.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="311" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7Afcc3QcpA7WvGABvA1FPxCQzkjXpMjzz-8JEfCiqRAtI3s7XddNvezxIldguO7GJ-EptCg6JEBCNPATkpx22OcLh6FfvhpVcLZu2KG4Xc25N2Fic36IxfMgRB-uU_nH3dFLYvA/s400/debtstar+v+mars.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br /></div>"Hunter"http://www.blogger.com/profile/00378911050329222693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28706712.post-695842892433461912012-02-25T09:05:00.000-08:002012-02-25T09:11:39.430-08:00WHAT IF "STAR WARS: EPISODE I" WAS GOOD? (Belated Media)<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="270" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/VgICnbC2-_Y?fs=1" width="480"></iframe><br />
<br />
Star Wars Episode I... One of the worst movies I have unfortunately witnessed. Now yes this is true as a result of my expectations and the potential of it being good. This movie review shows the potential and really makes you hate George Lucas. As do the always funny and spot on South Park creators Matt Stone and Trey Parker:<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/TfMkvnyLYU4" width="420"></iframe></div>"Hunter"http://www.blogger.com/profile/00378911050329222693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28706712.post-72378046016165238892012-02-19T08:09:00.000-08:002012-02-19T08:09:05.633-08:00Seth Klarman's Rare Interview<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
A fabulous interview with an investment heavy weight, Seth Klarman:<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="220" mozallowfullscreen="" src="http://player.vimeo.com/video/32333102?title=0&byline=0&portrait=0&color=ff9933" webkitallowfullscreen="" width="400"></iframe><br />
<a href="http://vimeo.com/32333102">An Interview with Seth Klarman and Charlie Rose</a> from <a href="http://vimeo.com/facinghistory">Facing History and Ourselves</a> on <a href="http://vimeo.com/">Vimeo</a>.<br />
<br /></div>"Hunter"http://www.blogger.com/profile/00378911050329222693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28706712.post-44914198570494713152011-11-26T19:50:00.001-08:002011-11-26T19:59:19.488-08:00Great Interactive Piece from the BBC on the Eurozone Debt Issue<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
A really interesting piece from the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696">BBC</a> showing the extent of the interconnectedness of the debt web that has been spun over the years. This epitomizes the debt problems of the Eurozone. Have fun playing it with it all. Click the link above or copy and paste this one: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696 </div>"Hunter"http://www.blogger.com/profile/00378911050329222693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28706712.post-38755035608689344632011-11-12T08:56:00.001-08:002011-11-12T09:40:35.131-08:00David Rosenberg on Wealthtrack using the D word<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Consuelo Mack of Wealthtrack does some great in depth interviews with the leading financial minds out there. David Rosenberg former Merrill Lynch economist and now economist of Gluskin Sheff is one of those great leading minds. I have followed him for some time now and his analysis is top notch. He called the financial crisis and the recession of 2008. Many detractors will point to him not seeing the 2009-11 rebound in stocks. However his strategy of bonds, income producing stocks, and precious metals has been very successful with incrementally less risk. Now he is using the D-word, Depression, to describe the times we are in. I tend to agree with him believe it or not. I don't think it's as visible as it was in the 1930s. We have social safety nets that have been hiding the stress. Food stamps being an example of this stress. They have increased in usage since the start of the financial crisis and are up to 15% of the population using them. The <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/03/food-stamp-usage-highest_n_917038.html">Huffington Post</a> has further details on this. Whether we call it a Great Depression or not remains to be seen and will be determined in large part by governmental policy snafus. At the very least we are in a balance sheet recession. Which are financial in nature and are long drawn out affairs. I think the label of "depression" will come well after the fact so don't expect it to become mainstream anytime soon.<br />
<br />
Luckily for us David Rosenberg does take an optimistic twist at the end. Which I feel is very important as we go through tougher times. We will get through this and political/leadership change in the developed world will eventually occur and help. In addition deleveraging and time will be the most helpful. Watch it all and enjoy:<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="277" src="http://blip.tv/play/hK4tgt3UWQI.html" width="480"></iframe><embed src="http://a.blip.tv/api.swf#hK4tgt3UWQI" style="display: none;" type="application/x-shockwave-flash"></embed></div>"Hunter"http://www.blogger.com/profile/00378911050329222693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28706712.post-20599597503299207612011-11-09T22:03:00.000-08:002011-11-09T22:03:28.218-08:00The Debt Star<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Funny, but true... unfortunately:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDEk2G4IKEnF5pRhtQ_vTRrHjZ3leYM2fRwuHX-RjvxpDf2iljECmVKuIGmpxTODAj1mZ0oWyVXJohOoQggQPVDdPPmw_sV44-mkpX9Lo3vp37Tckup-jYrPP8SkdBvL5IHUWkVQ/s1600/debt-star-2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="317" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDEk2G4IKEnF5pRhtQ_vTRrHjZ3leYM2fRwuHX-RjvxpDf2iljECmVKuIGmpxTODAj1mZ0oWyVXJohOoQggQPVDdPPmw_sV44-mkpX9Lo3vp37Tckup-jYrPP8SkdBvL5IHUWkVQ/s400/debt-star-2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br /></div>"Hunter"http://www.blogger.com/profile/00378911050329222693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28706712.post-10308010137130438652011-11-03T00:32:00.000-07:002011-11-03T00:33:00.110-07:00Hugh Hendry Latest at London School of Economics<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
This series is by far the best of Hugh Hendry out there that I have seen. Not only does it go over his various trades, but also his thought process on them. What I like as well is you really learn about Hugh and get a feeling for his process and who he is as an individual. It's almost like you were at the conference and having a personal conversation with him. They're great videos and a treasure for all of us to review and reflect on: <br />
<br />
Part 1: <br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/K4scHgnJhQU" width="420"></iframe><br />
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Part 2:<br />
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Part 3:<br />
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Part 4:<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/53EV0ozdIKc" width="420"></iframe><br />
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Part 5:<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/sQZtiU6qoaU" width="420"></iframe><br />
<br /></div>"Hunter"http://www.blogger.com/profile/00378911050329222693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28706712.post-47134094851872277452011-10-30T23:25:00.000-07:002011-10-30T23:25:18.341-07:00Europe's Treaty of Debt<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
A great video clip on some of the problems with Europe's latest treaty to solve their debt crisis. Mainly the problem of giving a lot of power and immunity to an unelected political body.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicRRHWjvnPnAIjkzuBslIZ5J8VwBQpBAm1P0gk2gI23fHnvJT4fIp23tiCQUElNjGfbsejM0zTVqOwDC0AfzCLUf7QRzrxeqjwZ893SAVZIGGYT6LMoqy4LweCPehnGWr2Ed7dhg/s1600/Euro.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicRRHWjvnPnAIjkzuBslIZ5J8VwBQpBAm1P0gk2gI23fHnvJT4fIp23tiCQUElNjGfbsejM0zTVqOwDC0AfzCLUf7QRzrxeqjwZ893SAVZIGGYT6LMoqy4LweCPehnGWr2Ed7dhg/s1600/Euro.jpg" /></a></div>
<div>
The Bulls have regained the momentum! Anticipation &
initial good news from the European Debt crisis had markets rebounding
from 5 straight months of losses in one of the better months on record.
Europe’s take on its heavily indebted nations for the last 18 months has
been really a policy
of “kicking the can down the road”. The best analogy I heard was they
were not only kicking the can down the road but when they ran out of
road they began paving more road to continue the kicking! As is all too
clear with our own politicians nothing ever seems
to get done until there is a major crisis at hand. This is truly a step
in the right direction for Europe as they are actually trying to
restructure Greek debt with the “voluntary” 50% reduction. Coupled with
other bullish winds of healthy corporate balance
sheets, low interest rates, accommodative Central Banks, and Government
intervention has given strength to the rally. </div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
However one still has to be cautious in a market environment where a
lot of the factors that gave us the summer downturn are still real
& present. Sovereign nation debt is still growing at alarming rates
in the Developed world as Economic Growth sputters
behind. The little economic growth we have had has in fact been showing
signs of slowing since summer. The recession threat might be greater
then what most experts think. The stock & commodity markets have
also shown an amazing amount of correlation to government
and central bank intervention. It was relatively easy to predict this
summer’s market downturn when the market was no longer supported by
Federal Reserve Bank’s QE2 (Quantitative Easing). Lastly the lack of
political leadership to make difficult/unpopular decisions
from the developed world has been troubling. A lot of the structural
imbalances built up over the years in our economy still have not been
addressed. </div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<div>
Predictions of the future however are always difficult and
unpredictable. A balanced approach with emphasis on “playing defense”
during the next 6-18 months in my opinion is still the prudent move. I
am happy to see the European leaders finally coming
to the realization of needing to restructure Greek debts. This is a big
start to dealing with the world’s debt problem but the details of the EU
summit still need to be ironed out. In addition the Europeans will have
to deal with the much larger debt problems
of Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and Italy.Time will tell.</div>
</div>"Hunter"http://www.blogger.com/profile/00378911050329222693noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28706712.post-79716940879692563832011-10-23T10:34:00.000-07:002011-10-23T10:37:46.093-07:00Rob Arnott's latest: We're in a Recession<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Rob Arnott talks with Market Watch about his views that the US is already in a recession, China's soft landing, and taking incremental risk. Enjoy:<br />
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<embed src="http://s.marketwatch.com/media/swf/main.swf" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"flashVars="videoGUID={05A3A5D5-4A8B-43F5-8322-E4AF3A3CCCB3}&playerid=2001&plyMediaEnabled=1&configURL=http://m.wsj.net/video-players/&autoStart=false" base="http://s.marketwatch.com/media/swf/" name="flashPlayer" width="512" height="363" seamlesstabbing="false" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" swLiveConnect="true" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/shockwave/download/index.cgi?P1_Prod_Version=ShockwaveFlash"></embed></object></div>"Hunter"http://www.blogger.com/profile/00378911050329222693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28706712.post-35924859227516159602011-10-22T16:47:00.000-07:002011-10-22T16:47:39.198-07:00Ray Dalio's Latest Interview with Chralie Rose<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Anytime you have the opportunity to listen/watch Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates talk than you are better off having done so. His approach to global economics and assessment of the "machine" is truly revealing to his success as an investor. Whether you agree with him or not on the various subjects how he comes to his conclusions is what fellow mercenaries should study and emulate. Follow the link to <a href="http://www.charlierose.com/view/content/11957">Charlie Rose's</a> website and enjoy!<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZa3-W89k6WmluFFawDHaqD4vmKoPsKQSW-6VXdcrCVmwS5B1coitj3Kz6WlfzO5hsdAnsK5FxBfMsTmCx2Kne0LcpzR5DeWZDplBs2G0s2nptIvZF-8xzp1AduOfxWlO6KAz87w/s1600/Dalio.jpg" /></div>
<br /></div>"Hunter"http://www.blogger.com/profile/00378911050329222693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28706712.post-37748121172360206202011-10-02T23:46:00.000-07:002011-10-02T23:46:16.625-07:00Hugh Hendry's Latest Media Appearance<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Hugh Hendry is back after a hiatus from making media appearances. According to him his new "CEO" has requested that he not make anymore media appearances. Luckily for us he was a able to sneak on to a BBC radio show to give his views of the European Crisis. Enjoy:<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/cCAELLhbGPo" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
and the long version of the video:<br />
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/fyaSERuv2Z4" width="420"></iframe><br />
<br /></div>
"Hunter"http://www.blogger.com/profile/00378911050329222693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28706712.post-60793157412102296332011-10-01T19:09:00.000-07:002011-10-01T19:43:45.034-07:00California's Financial Woes Look to Continue<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj50efXwp8zSI2rkahTXqB7vmBQ1rPDis8hYVHeYsk7McYOgQgSooe2bsh1vdhP3LkyvObMnHzU2Ob1iWPLo86daQ3ZgevKT083UJqJdLcN8gEodwkni8mif-6vUyaFMagD_LHyFw/s1600/california-broke.jpg"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5599399271092149874" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj50efXwp8zSI2rkahTXqB7vmBQ1rPDis8hYVHeYsk7McYOgQgSooe2bsh1vdhP3LkyvObMnHzU2Ob1iWPLo86daQ3ZgevKT083UJqJdLcN8gEodwkni8mif-6vUyaFMagD_LHyFw/s320/california-broke.jpg" style="display: block; height: 166px; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; width: 320px;" /></a><br />
Michael Lewis' newest article over at Vanity Fair, <a href="http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2011/11/michael-lewis-201111">California and Bust</a> is an eye opening article and somewhat depressing. He covers quite a bit including defending Meredith Whitney, interviewing Arnold Schwarzenegger, and going to the city level where most of the pain is being felt. I implore you to read it in its entirety as it is well written and his premise is unique. My critical comments would be that he didn't go after the public sector unions and come to the conclusion that FDR had done in his presidency that they should not be allowed. On the flip side the public workers were unionized long before the most recent devolution of America/California society. Read it yourself and see what conclusions you come to.<br />
<br />
Lewis' article inspired me to find the great work that Mish over at his Global Economic Trend Analysis has done on the subject of California. I have been meaning to post these links for sometime now. Mish's blog has done us all a wonderful service by discussing a lot of California's budget problems. Here are his solutions to budget crises in January 2008 & 2011:<br />
<a href="http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/01/mishs-california-budget-proposal.html">Mish's California Budget Proposal</a><br />
&<br />
<a href="http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/01/california-budget-balancer-interactive.html">California Budget Balancer Interactive Map from LA Times Misses the Mark</a><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><br />
<blockquote style="font-style: italic;">
Mish:<br />
"Look at this disgusting list of <a href="http://www.ca.gov/CaSearch/Agencies.aspx" target="_blank">California Agencies</a>.<br />
<br />
I sorted out some but not all of the more ridiculous ones.<br />
<br />
Does the state need a ....<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Acupuncture Department</li>
<li>Office of AIDs</li>
<li>Air Research Board</li>
<li>3 different agencies for alcohol and beverages</li>
<li>2 Apprenticeship Councils</li>
<li>Art Council</li>
<li>Asian Pacific Islander Legislative Caucus</li>
<li>Bureau of Automotive repair</li>
<li>Barbering board</li>
<li>Biodiversity council</li>
<li>Calvet Loan program</li>
<li>Climate Change Portal</li>
<li>Coastal Commission</li>
<li>Cool California</li>
<li>4 Delta agencies</li>
<li>Digital Library</li>
<li>Bureau of Electronic and Appliance Repair</li>
<li>Employment Training Panel</li>
<li>Energy Commission</li>
<li>Equalization Board</li>
<li>2 Fair Employment agencies</li>
<li>Film Commission</li>
<li>Flex Your Power</li>
<li>Healthy Family Program</li>
<li>Hearing Aid Dispensers Bureau</li>
<li>Home Furnishings Bureau</li>
<li>Humanities Council</li>
<li>Independent Living Council</li>
<li>Indoor Air Quality Program</li>
<li>Economic Development Bank</li>
<li>Interagency Ecological Program</li>
<li>Labor and Workforce Development</li>
<li>Latino Legislative Caucus</li>
<li>Learn California</li>
<li>Little Hoover Commission</li>
<li>Maritime Academy</li>
<li>Managed Risk Board</li>
<li>Museum for History</li>
<li>MyCali Youth Portal</li>
<li>Native Heritage Association</li>
<li>Natural Community Planning Program</li>
<li>Naturopathic Medicine Community</li>
<li>Outreach</li>
<li>Peace Officer Standards Board</li>
<li>Postsecondary Education Commission</li>
<li>Prison Industry Authority</li>
<li>Privacy Protection Office</li>
<li>Psychology Board</li>
<li>Railroad Museum</li>
<li>Recovery Task Force</li>
<li>Refugee Branch</li>
<li>Regents of the U of C</li>
<li>Save Our Water commission</li>
<li>Smart Growth Caucus</li>
<li>Status of Women Commission</li>
<li>Take Charge California</li>
<li>We Connect</li>
<li>Wetlands Information System</li>
<li>Workforce Investment Board</li>
</ul>
<br />
California does not need ANY of those. Moreover I assure you I missed dozens more that could be cut back if not eliminated entirely. What the heck do those cost? And how much can be saved by my suggestions above."</blockquote>
<br />
<br />
A great quote from Mish... Read both of the links in their entirety. They are excellent. California has had 2+ years of massive budget problems. Early this year it was at the tune of a $25 billion deficit.<br />
<br />
My take on this is simple and sensible. People of California and the United States need to ask themselves, "what kind of Government do you want and what are you willing to do to pay for it." I don't think that California residents realize what the costs are of having a fully intrusive government that tries to be all things to all people. Californians already have some the highest taxes in the union with little to show for it. Why not have the state focus on some of the more important aspects of basic governance: education, public safety, public health, infrastructure, and certain basic safety nets. Sure those basics are in need of massive reform, but at least the effort and focus could/should be on them. However if you think that California (and the US for that matter) is too far gone like Michael Lewis hints at then it might have to get a lot worse before it gets better. As time progresses I am leaning towards the later option and holders of local/city municipal bond should be prepared on what that may look like. </div>
"Hunter"http://www.blogger.com/profile/00378911050329222693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28706712.post-82727187081999345072011-09-19T22:44:00.000-07:002011-09-19T22:44:45.493-07:00Kyle Bass on CNBC discussing the latest on the European Crisis<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Kyle Bass from Hayman Capital was on CNBC's Strategy Room last Wednesday to discuss the European Crisis. He parses through the noise on the situation with how "the period we are going to go through, people are going to lose a lot of money." Flat out he doesn't believe that Greece and the PIIGS are not going to have an orderly default, but the world is not going to end. He does see a recession on the way as I do. The video is top notch:<br />
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"Hunter"http://www.blogger.com/profile/00378911050329222693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28706712.post-79522562432688090652011-09-14T22:40:00.000-07:002011-09-14T22:43:34.301-07:00NCAA Hypocrisy Exposed by the Mercs & South Park<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbLLvteU_y-QcatjII1GHBpHPpvnlTIlVLLy7pvHjpy7-61r7MBPzLiJ_TDbNy6Hv-f1CC5MA7KgNPoKZPaNOyXF6MLb_r9aFj-uK-SgkJ93OMVLLC8l0QQMvXF4UmY-yvp3g1Dg/s1600/Ohio-State-scandal.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="166" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbLLvteU_y-QcatjII1GHBpHPpvnlTIlVLLy7pvHjpy7-61r7MBPzLiJ_TDbNy6Hv-f1CC5MA7KgNPoKZPaNOyXF6MLb_r9aFj-uK-SgkJ93OMVLLC8l0QQMvXF4UmY-yvp3g1Dg/s200/Ohio-State-scandal.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
NCAA major sports programs are a big business... no a huge business. I
find the hypocrisy of the NCAA Division I sports stifling. My doubts
started when College Football refused all common sense and the spirit of
competition when they rejected a playoff system. The vested interests
of the bowl system, TV rights, etc. were not budging. I am fine with
folks making money, but when the NCAA wrap themselves up in academics
and the tradition of the bowls I call hypocrisy! The more I looked into
the more the whole system absolutely stinks. <br />
<br />
The NCAA
loves to espouse academics and will parade it out or hide behind it at
the first sign of trouble. Truth being told when it comes to academics
the graduation rates of the "student athletes" is extremely low.
Especially for the players who come from the top programs. Overall and
there is some debate with the statistics, but <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/news/story?id=5733153">ESPN </a>reports grad rates at 69% for Division I football. You can see where all the schools individually rank at <a href="http://stanford.scout.com/2/952555.html">Scout.com</a>.
For reference this year's current college #1 ranked team, Oklahoma, is
at an embarrassing 45% graduation rate. When comparing the racial divide
between graduation rates of whites to blacks the numbers are even
worse. 59% was the graduation rate from last years champion, Auburn.
However 94% of Caucasian players graduated compared to the 48% of
African Americans. That's a -46% difference! So you better hope these
kids have a chance at the NFL, right?? Yeah, hmmm, well at least 90% of
the 2500 Division I football players that run out of eligibility <b>never </b>play a single down in the NFL according to this ESPN <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/091215&sportCat=nfl">article</a>.
The article is full of NCAA hypocrisy and is a must read. NFL has been
known to stand for "Not For Long" and most players don't even make it to
"full career" of 5 years. If that isn't enough information for you the <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/20/study-ncaa-graduation-rat_n_544292.html">Huffington </a>Post
does a good job exposing some of the questionable data that NCAA puts
together in its statistics about student athlete academics.<br />
<br />
Now
that we've proven the sham of NCAA Student Athlete academics. The NCAA
likes to play upon most of our fond memories of college that most of us
share. They constantly talk up tradition and the spirit of history. I
love history! Well guess what? The NCAA could really care less with
their most recent antics. They have been turning a blind eye to
conference realignment for the sake billion dollar TV contracts that the
players will never see a dime of. Rose Bowl champion Texas Christian
University, TCU will be playing sports in the Big East Conference?!?!
Texas A&M is looking to jump ship to South East Conference, SEC.
Oklahoma & Oklahoma State are contemplating a jump to the
already crowded PAC-12. Why? For the TV contracts of course! Guess what
if you are player in one of the big powerhouse schools if you accept any
form of payment or trade you are suspended or kicked out of the league.
The latest (<a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=6636768">ESPN</a>)
is the star quarterback, Terrell Pryor, from Ohio State was suspended
and forced to try the NFL because he received a couple hundred dollars
and some tattoos for signing his own jersey of the school he plays for!
Meanwhile one injury could've ended his career and his earning
potential. He would have little to show for it. However the school would
have made 10s of millions on TV contracts, tickets sales, video game
sales, memorabilia, etc. I don't have time to rant about the coaches who
make millions in the face of their unpaid players.... <br />
<br />
The
more I have looked into it, the more disenfranchised I have become of
big time college sports. Worse is I hate the rank hypocrisy that is
thrown in your face as a sports fan. And I am a huge sports fan. I am as
big of a capitalist as any out there and don't have any problem with
any coach or school making money. When you use the government and
"non-profit" institutions to manipulate & oppress others so they
can't get the same opportunity that's when I have a problem! One of the
reasons I am a sports fan and a capitalist at heart is I love
competition. However there isn't a level playing field for those that
risk it all, the kids/students/players. So let's call the situation what
it really is: SLAVERY. South Park doesn't pull any punches when it
mocks the whole sham. Enjoy and remember careful what you support when
you spend your money and time watching collegiate athletics.<br />
<br />
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<div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 4px; padding: 4px; text-align: left;">
<b><a href="http://www.southparkstudios.com/full-episodes/s15e05-crack-baby-athletic-association">Crack Baby Athletic Association</a></b><br />
Get More: <a href="http://www.southparkstudios.com/" style="color: #ffcc00; display: block; float: right; font-weight: bold; position: relative; text-decoration: none; top: -1.33em;">SOUTH<br />PARK</a><a href="http://www.southparkstudios.com/guide/characters/eric-cartman">Eric Cartman</a>,<a href="http://www.southparkstudios.com/guide/characters/kyle-broflovski">Kyle Broflovski</a>,<a href="http://www.southparkstudios.com/guide/episodes/s15e05-crack-baby-athletic-association">more...</a></div>
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"Hunter"http://www.blogger.com/profile/00378911050329222693noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28706712.post-45187801420550752882011-09-13T00:16:00.000-07:002011-09-14T22:41:05.981-07:00Epic Nadal vs Djokovic US Open Final<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
This is one of the greatest tennis matches I have seen in a long time. The score doesn't do justice to the pace of play and competitiveness of the match. Djokovic and Nadal played a knock down drag out fight of a match. The crowd was loud like a Davis Cup match and both players were going blow for blow like a pair boxers throwing haymakers at each other. This YouTube clips is one of many great epic points that seem to come at the biggest parts of the match, break points, set points, etc. One of the games lasted over 17 minutes and the total time of the match was close to 4 hours. Unbelievable Final! Enjoy:<br />
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"Hunter"http://www.blogger.com/profile/00378911050329222693noreply@blogger.com0