The Media Misses the Forest from the Trees with Sub-Prime Scare

Is it me or is the Main Stream Media (MSM) taking the easy way out on the deflating housing bubble. We have finally passed the stage of denial of the falling values and are now approaching acceptance of them. Most likely by the fall of 2007, we'll be moving on to panic stage after a dismal spring-summer peak buying season passes. Currently the easy way out to explain why home prices are falling and our economy is slowing is to blame it on some shady loans in sub-prime. If you came from another planet and began reading today's business news you would think the entire housing bubble could be blamed on the segment of sub-prime and shady loans. However the MSM is completely missing the forest from the trees because it was a convergence of numerous factors that helped spur massive home speculation.

Yes problems with sub-prime are showing up now, but it was only a symptom of the great housing bubble not the disease. Plus the real shady loans, 110% financing, 40-50yr mortgages, neg-ams, and ninja loans (no income-no job-no assets) haven't even reared their ugly head yet! They showed up around 2005. Why did this happen, well I will tell you why. From 2002-04 a massive amount of people were hired to meet the demand for new homes, refinances, and other real estate activities. This just led to a feeding frenzy of increased real estate activity as more and more people fueled the rise of prices and the rise of the Real Estate Industrial Complex. No Dick Cheney and the black helicopters were not behind this, it is just an easy way to describe everyone (REIC: agents, lenders, builders, title, escrow, appraisers, etc) that has vested interest in real estate activity. Continuing: Greed took greater hold with speculators buying 2nd, 3rd, and 4th homes which artificially inflated prices and created jobs for the REIC. While the REIC reciprocated and encouraged more and more speculators and buyers to join in. In economics this is your typical multiplier effect. As values skyrocketed home affordability was falling like a rock. But REIC and the general buying public didn't want the gravy train to stop and that is where the true sub-prime stepped in to extend the bubble for another year and half.

Here is a simple way that the media should be describing the entire situation out there: The housing market got way ahead of itself and now its coming back to earth! The simple economic term says it all: revision to the mean. Or here is yet another way of putting it: the housing bubble was one big bender of a party and now the inevitable hangover is here. Those at the party tried in vain to keep it going with redbull/vodkas, cocaine and on the housing side you had low rates, creative financing, and general propaganda. Now they enter the long and drawn out hangover which for housing means long periods of price declines to high inventory from inactivity, etc. Ahhh, but I digress.

So when somebody tries to blame this housing decline or anything else for that matter on just one factor, take it with a grain of salt. There are a lot factors to this housing hangover and there is a lot of blame to go around: Greenspan & his artificially low rates, Bush's idealistic ownership society, sub-prime, REIC, yen-carry trade, a greedy uneducated public, black helicopters, etc. America and the media need to wake up and take responsibility for this mess that we all had some stake in creating! One tree of this mess is sub-prime, while the forest are all these factors together that created one of the largest bubbles of history, the late and great housing bubble.

Inflation & Ski Resorts

Has anyone noticed the recent proliferation of higher and higher ski pass prices. Within in the last five years I have seen prices in Tahoe go from the high $40's to around $70 a ticket. The worst in my opinion has been the escalation at Mammoth Mountain. In little over 4 years their tickets have gone from $61/day to $80/day. That is an inflation rate of 7% and who knows what the increase in price will be with the new renovations they're doing. I have one of their discount season passes that has gone from $499 to $550 this year alone!

Yes this anecdotal evidence, but this inflation problem is starting to rear it's ugly head in more places. Even more worrisome with inflation is it's a lagging indicator meaning we are getting the hangover from the easy money over the last 5 years. Too much money following too few goods. Now that our economy has slowed down we are left to play in the mess Greenspan made (http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com) at the turn of the century. Welcome to Stagflation! Stagnate growth + inflation of the 1970's.

Before you go play hopscotch on the freeway, remember domestic company balance sheets are in great position and are economy is more efficient then ever. The effects of the past monetary binge and now the housing crash are going to test our economy. So far the economy is with standing the onslaught....

The Truth about Executive Compensation

I am getting a little off track, but this is something I have wanted to blog about for a long time. Thanks to Keith over at Housing Panic, "The Housing Bubble Blog with Attitude" I have been inspired to write about this subject. Here is the link to his post and to one of my favorite blogs:

http://housingpanic.blogspot.com/2006/10/petscom-all-over-again-as-reic-starts.html

His post is in response to the Countrywide CEO Mozilo, who was compensated $160 mil last year. Now I am no friend of the Real Estate Industrial Complex (REIC). I am almost positive there will be Enron like hearings in the near future in regards to fradulent real estate practices. My post however is in regards to all executive compensation and how populist regulation can have the opposite effect. The problem with over compensation is a result of the proliferation of stock options. However this is only a symptom of the real disease which was the cause and effect of liberal "tinkering". The main source of the problem is a law that was passed by President Clinton & his Democratic congress in 1993. As with most liberal policy it sounds good on the surface and means well, but of course had the opposite effect. Did you know that currently companies are prohibitted from deducting any salary of $1 mil or more? Well in 1993 congress passed the law, which is now part of section 162(m) of Internal Revenue Code, in response to the public uproar of compensation paid to top execs. This effectively created a boom of stock options for execs & employees (mostly execs). Plus congress exempted incentive-based pay from this law and the IRS ruled that option grants was incentive-based pay. This is why there is more excessive compensation than ever because companies can pay them for "free", by just issuing out more stock. Most executive compensation is well over 80% stock options. Big fund companies and fellow executive stockholders rarely complain about these options. Now if the liberals didn't tinker & regulate then most of the compensation would be in the form of salary and be put on the balance sheet for everyone to see. Leave it to the government to screw it up.

The countrywide CEO is a prime example of what is wrong with the system. Pump up the stock or ride a bubble and then cash out and let some other poor sucker deal with it. Coincidence with the internet boom, you bet. That is why congress needs to abolish the law on executive compensation. It seems ass backwards, but it's the obvious solution.

Why Real Estate Investing is Just Hype

This post is a counter to all of the hype surrounding the real estate “investing” world. It is now almost commonplace to hear ordinary Americans looking at real estate as an investment instead of a place to live. What they don’t realize is the deck is stacked against them in regards to costs & returns. Real Estate has suddenly turned into a one stop shop for all things including an ATM/Bank, children’s college savings, retirement account, etc. Well here are my problems with single family home dwellings as an investment properties (multiple properties) for most Americans.

• Operating/maintenance costs are high: This is probably the most significant overlooked cost for investors. Yes there are interest & tax expenses and yes they are tax deductible, but it costs money. Plus your interest rates are going to be higher because the home is non-owner occupied. Then you have the choice of having a management company or yourself taking responsibility of your tenants and their needs. There is a cost which can range from 15-30% of your rental income. Or you can utilize your time and liability risk to do it yourself. Remember not all tenants are created equal and a horrible tenant can become an absolute nightmare and sap your time. If you bought an older property, be prepared to dole out some cash for major repairs.
• Buying costs you time and money: This is also underestimated because most folks believe the costs are taken care of by the seller. Guess again they are some hidden ones. Most notably an agent will have a conflict of interest to only show their broker/companies listing. This can lead to paying more for a property. Also there is the costs of your loan which can range anywhere to 1-3% of the sale. The time spent buying house can be substantial when considering: looking at all properties, haggling with the seller on price & contingencies, and getting all of the inspections & paperwork done.
• Selling costs you time and money: Here is what really gets you when you decide to finally sell your investment property. You will be looking at an agent’s fee of close to 4-6% off the sale to get listed and marketed. God forbid you have to sell in a market like 2006-‘07 or you can add closing costs to that fee too. Then of course there is the time and energy to get your house in shape and to show it constantly. Another little known issue is your house just got a couple years older, while newer and better houses are entering the market.
• No capital gains tax breaks for non-owner occupied homes: This is the most glaring issue, especially for flippers. This will literally eat what ever profits you have left after the aforementioned costs. Your capital gain is going to be taxed at ordinary income rates. This means you’re going to be taxed at federal & state level from 25-46% on your gain depending on how much you income and if your state taxes you.
• The returns are mostly based on extraordinarily high amounts of leverage: For almost everybody you have to be leveraged with a down payment of around 20%. In an up market that can turn a 5% home value increase to a rate of return of 20%. Well guess what happens if the home value goes down 5% when you want to sell? Now you have a 20% loss. Hmmm your value goes down 10% and you’re looking at 50% loss on your money. But housing always goes up right? According to Yale Professor Robert Shiller prices have only increased at rate of under inflation of 3%/yr. (the long term data is very difficult get a reading on because houses were much smaller in the 1950’s compared to now)

Again I am not advocating that nobody should invest in real estate, but that people need to realize that there are better investments out there instead of a 2nd or 3rd home. I believe real estate investing becomes more attractive if you are a real estate agent, mortgage broker, contractor, etc. because you are able to get some rebates into your investment. Also if this is your primary job, you do it on a daily basis, and you have the time to invest. Most folks are not able to dedicate adequate time to real estate because they have a regular job. A house is a place to live and homeownership is great for that. So lets all keep that in prospective.

Public Debt vs. Personal Debt

The idea behind a democratic nation, is that it should be reflective of its people. This is the case in regards to the United States and her people. However when it comes to American spending habits this is definitely an unwanted correlation. Why? Well for one thing the monthly US household savings rate have been negative multiple times over this last year (savings rate of -0.4%). This data is tracked over at the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. The worrisome issue is that our Federal Government is on the same path. However how can you blame one without blaming the other for financial mismanagement. Here are some statistics on the US public debt in terms of Gross Domestic Product or GDP , according to the CIA Factbook.

• The United States Public Debt: 64.7% GDP (2005)
• French Public Debt: 66.2% GDP (2005)
• British Public Debt: 43.1% (2005)
• Swedish Public Debt: 50.4% (2005)
• Chinese Public Debt: 24.4% (2005)
• Japanese Public Debt: 158% GDP (2005)
• Bangladeshi Public Debt: 44.5% GDP (2005)

What do these statistics tell us? For one our debt level is the same or worst then some of the major European nanny states. We have 3x the public debt of that of China one of the emerging super powers. Japan on the other hand has 1.5x more public debt then we do in the US. Forshadowing??? Well Japan was put into difficult economic times in the early 1990's with a stock market crash followed by a major housing crash and then subsequent deflation. Remember they went into deflation with massive governmental expenditures & a central bank cutting interest rates to effectively zero! What can we learn from this is that Japan went to a more socialists slant with heavy deficit spending on social & government programs. They have been in a 15 year slump and only when former prime minister Koizumi put forward real reforms aimed at pro-business and the break up of the giant governmental institutions have they shown signs of life.

We are most likely in for some troubling economic times due to a variety reasons including a debtor society. The government in our case is really representative of its people. However usually people in rough economic times cut spending and so should the government. Government rarely cuts spending and either cuts taxes or raises them. Why is it so wrong for them to cut frivolous spending? American consumers will likely cut its frivolous spending on Hummer's, plasma TVs, and granite countertops. SO I would hope the government will cut its frothy bureaucracy and little used social programs. This investment mercenary isn't holding his breath....

Stock buybacks & what it might mean

Here is an excerpt from the Wall Street Journal 8/27 by Scott Patterson:

"If businesses move to pay out more of their earnings, investors will reap a windfall. But corporations have increasingly been either hoarding their cash or using it to buy back shares. The rate of dividend increases has recently shown signs of slowing down, while share buybacks are surging, says Mr. Silverblatt of S&P.

In the second quarter, companies in the S&P 500 put more than $116 billion into buybacks, up 43% from a year ago. Dividend payouts were up 11.1% from last year, to $54.5 billion. "

Be afraid, very afraid. Look at all the stock buybacks from a lot of the major US companies. Most recently the $3 Billion buyback from Boeing. That is an important signal because it shows that companies don't want to invest, take on risk, or extra capacity. Why? Because they feel there is going to be a major economic slow down and are preparing accordingly. They are hunkering down for the winter my friends and so should you.

On the flip side this why being a shareholder of a stock can be advantageous. Buybacks & dividends are the benefit of being one and is the company's way of giving back and rewarding your investment.

Source: wsj.com, 8/27/2006

An old Chinese curse: "May you live in interesting times"

This curse is the dilemma that we live in currently. The go-go days of the 90's are over. We now live under the threat of World War III with Islam. In my humble opinion it has been ongoing in which we are reminded constantly like last week's foiled British airline bombing. What does this have to do w/ investments? America is still living with the mind set of the 1990's. Everyone is living in a dream world where you can get rich quick whether it was the tech boom, housing boom, commodities boom, etc. Folks are spending money way beyond their means and living paycheck to paycheck. The margin for error is getting slimmer by the minute.

An alternative way to invest in these times can be the variable annuity w/ living benefits. The beauty of this investment is that you can invest in mutual funds within the annuity and the insurance company will "insure" your investment. There are essentially two layers of protection that they can give you: Death Benefits & Living Benefits. Death benefits are utilized by those that are looking for estate planning techniques for their heirs. My focus today is on the living benefits that can guarantee a certain rate of return for a specified time. Two riders that can help protect your investment are known as the guaranteed Minimum Income Benefit (GMIB) and the guaranteed Minimum Accumulation Benefit (GMAB). I am going to use the GMIB for an example: John Doe, a 50yr old, puts $100,000 in a Variable Annuity and elects the GMIB rider. The rider in this example will guarantee a rate of return compounded 5% for the next 15yrs. So lets say when Mr. Doe at age 65 decides to retire and his account loses money and is only valued at $80,000, he's screwed right? No because the GMIB account is at $200,000. That's the beauty of this type of investment. If the markets in the future react like they have always done in the past you will never have to use this rider, but it is there for reassurance.

So what's the catch? There are a few of them.

1. This annuity and rider will cost you 2-4% in fees. Finding one w/ low fees is paramount and these extra fees might be worth letting you sleep easier at night.
2. The rider's protection will only last for about 10-20yrs or only give you a maximum of 200-300% appreciation. That is why annuities are better for your 45-60yr old demographic.
3. You must give up liquidity and keep you money with the insurance company. If you leave the company the benefit goes away. People needing the money within 8-10 years should look elsewhere
4. In order for the benefit to be activated you must annuitize (take distributions) which locks you into the contract permanently.
5. The guarantee is only as good as the insurance company. If the company goes belly up you may not get that guarantee, so invest in big highly rated companies.
6. The US stock market has never lost money in any 15 year interval since 1926. Do you really need the protection?

I still believe and invest in capital markets, but for those that are more risk averse and don't want the low returns of cash or CD's this is a viable alternative. Please look at the find print (prospectus) and shop around to interview brokers & advisors. Since there is so much fine print your going to have to really go out on the ledge and trust in who you go with. Use your gut feeling and if they don't mention the downsides runaway! If you have a question feel free to leave a comment about it.

California Foreclosures up 104.4%

The Los Angeles Daily News has come out with a new article about California foreclosures increasing 104.4% from a year ago. Granted the foreclosure rates were abnormally low over the last couple years, but nevertheless, it is the trend I am following. Follow the link below:

http://www.dailynews.com/search/ci_4099727

These are dangerous numbers that are trending upward at a rapid pace. Here is a perfect example of a mercenary in the article:

"While the nation's foreclosure rate has certainly shifted into a higher gear since last year, low unemployment and home price appreciation in most housing markets have held foreclosures in check," Saccacio said in a statement.
The company forecasted a slowdown in foreclosure rates in its first quarter report and now expects that if the summer delivers its typically high number of home buyers, rates won't increase too rapidly.

This mercenary Saccacio is the CEO of RealtyTrac.com and guess where his interests are.... The spin that this fella tries to put on these horrible numbers is amazing. I think we already know what the summer has brought and that is less buyers and more inventory. Expect housing to continue its decline with a few hopeful bounces in the process. Unfortunately these bounces will only hurt more homeowners because it will give them the false reality of future increases.

A common question that I have come across is: "where do I get access to the foreclosure market" or "when is the best time to go after foreclosures?" Well my answer has been that you need to wait for a large sustained glut of foreclosure inventory. When I mean "sustained" it has to be at least 2yrs and when I mean "a glut of inventory" it needs to 5x larger then normal. Why? Well the reason people can make money on foreclosures is because the banks own the house. Banks are definitely not in the business of holding, buying, or selling property and will unload a house below a depressed market value. Right now house flippers and real estate "investors" have the foreclosure market relatively saturated because they see this as the next great thing. Go ahead and do a web search on foreclosures to get an idea of what I am saying. Remember in foreclosure auctions your buying the house as-is. There is some risk in this with termites, mold, foundation issues, etc that can make your new acquisition worthless.

Be forewarned!

Article Source: Los Angeles Daily News

Increase of Minimum Wage = Even More Inflationary Pressures

Rumor has it that there are votes in the house for a potential increase of minimum wage from $5.15/hr to the proposed $7.25/hr. I know the intentions can be good, but this will have a major effect on the weakening economy in the form of slowing growth and fanning the flames of inflation even further. Legislation like this are what can be the straw that breaks the camel's back. I think the timing for this is very troublesome. Plus states like California already have increased their minimum wages and plans to further increase it.

High wage inflation can have devastating results when mixed into the economy as a whole. Especially during this time when we see inflation rising in almost every indicator: headline, core, CPI, PCE, unit labor cost, wage costs, ECI, etc. I hate to be so negative, but we are entering a time of Stagflation (stagnant growth - high inflation) and possible recession. Expect a bumpy ride for at least the next year, the question of how long and bumpy remains to be seen.

Startling Numbers with Higher Interest Rates

There has been a lot of talk of the housing market bubble and when it will pop, etc. I do not have a crystal ball, but I will say this, the market in the next 2-3yrs in for a major correction. Unlike the liquidity of the stock market the housing market is slow to move and we will not see the repercussions until really 2007. We are seeing the beginnings with a massive increase in inventory. I have put together some numbers over the last year to show how the interest rates are going to contribute to this correction.
Last year at this time:

• Fed rate was at 3.25%
• ten year treasury bond was at 4%
• prime was at 6.25% (Adjustable Rate Mortgage based on)
• 30 year mortgage fixed rate was at 5.5%

Now today these numbers have changed drastically:

• Fed rate at 5.25%
• ten year treasury bond at 5.25%
• prime at 8.25%
• 30 year fixed rates at 7% (APR)

So what do these numbers mean to you? Unless you're a finance nerd like me, then this means absolutely nothing. So let's put it in terms we all can understand: How much is this going to cost me?

Last year if you were looking to buy a $500,000 home with 20% down:

• $400,000 loan amount
• 5.5% 30yr fixed
• $2,271/mo

Now another way of looking at that number is what with today's rates of 7% would the payment of $2,271/mo get you house wise?

• A $341,348 mortgage or
• $426,685 house instead of a $500,000 house
• That's a 15% decline in purchasing power!!!

Has your job given you a raise 15% in the last year? For most American wages have been stagnate over the last 5 years. If you have an ARM loan depending on several factors you're going to have 16-20% decline purchasing power. Let's see what happens if you go 100% financing:

• $400,000 5.5% fixed loan
• $100,000 6.25% Interest Only Equity Line
• $2792/mo

With today's rates lets see what $2,792/mo gets you?

• $341,348 1st mortgage
• $75,758 2nd
• $417,106 house instead of a $500,000 house
• That's a 17% decline in purchasing power!!!

The market has yet to price this in to the real estate market, but when it does you can expect a minimum 20% decline over the next year or two. These numbers a just based on the increase of rates, they don't even take into consideration the froth of the market and the unusual appreciation over the last 5-7 years. The numbers don't lie.